Student’s Early Warning System for Career Risk — GlidePath Career Navigation™ Volatility Index
Go from career disruption signals to strategic action.
© 2025 Greg Twemlow. All rights reserved.
Part of the GlidePath Career Navigation™ system. AI Volatility™ rating methodology and AI Management Proficiency (AMP) framework are proprietary intellectual property of Greg Twemlow.
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The compute infrastructure wave is here. AI-ready compute and data centres are scaling fast. Pretty soon, human civilisation will have to start putting its data centres into space, because the current trend is obviously not sustainable. We know now that Data centres in the U.S. could consume as much electricity by 2030 as some entire industrialised economies. When investment runs this hot, organisations push for returns by deploying automation wherever it saves time or headcount or both. Early labour-market evidence already shows mixed but meaningful shifts in exposed occupations.²
For students entering the workforce over the next decade, the critical question isn’t whether AI will change a path — it’s how fast, in which direction, and what to do about it.
That’s why I designed the GlidePath Career Navigation™ Volatility Index.
The Emotional Architecture: From Anxiety to Agency
The tasks are changing, and so are the emotions around planning — GlidePath manages both.
Students: Anxiety drops when uncertainty is named. With Volatility + AI Management Proficiency (AMP) visible, the question becomes: Given these signals, what’s my next small step? The plan evolves; the process stays steady.
Parents: Expertise from a more predictable era can feel out of date. The Volatility Index gives families a shared line to point at — volatility level, direction, and AI Management Proficiency (AMP) — so dinner-table talk becomes constructive and calm.
Careers adviser: The role shifts from predicting destinations to coaching navigation. With a shared table and two prompts, meetings start from evidence (short write-ups, clear ratings) and move to what advisers do best: timing, adjacencies, trade-offs, and language a teenager can use.
Because the method is assistant-agnostic and file-based, it works in NSW Education’s Microsoft Copilot context as easily as anywhere.
Beyond Job Predictions: Task-Level Reality
A 2024 study in Science reveals why the old “pick a job title and plan backwards” approach misses the point. The authors argue for task-level exposure, not just job labels, reporting: “roughly 1.8% of jobs could have over half their tasks affected… with complements, just over 46% of jobs show meaningful AI task exposure.”¹
This reframes careers as bundles of tasks that shift at different speeds. A Data Analyst might see query writing and basic visualisation automated (high exposure) while interpretation and stakeholder communication remain human-centred (lower exposure). The job persists; the day-to-day changes — so the skills mix must change too.
Traditional guidance treats roles as fixed destinations. GlidePath Career Navigation™ treats them as dynamic systems that students navigate with evidence.
Two Signals Matter
The GlidePath Career Navigation™ Volatility Index adds two plain-English signals to every role:
1) AI Volatility — timing your move
A combined rating of Level (Low / Medium / High) and Direction (Positive / Mixed / Negative) with a one-line rationale.
- Low, Positive (e.g., Aircraft Maintenance Engineer): core human tasks remain essential; AI tools assist. Suitable for longer commitments.
- Medium, Mixed (e.g., Software Engineer): productivity up; entry-level work compresses. Needs an adaptive entry strategy.
- High, Negative (e.g., Data Analyst): many first-pass tasks are automatable. Treat it as a stepping stone unless you specialise.
If the evidence is thin, we mark it as Not rated. That means “insufficient evidence yet,” not “no value.” It’s a signal to gather evidence or test a rated adjacent role before committing.
2) AI Management Proficiency (AMP) — how much AI you’ll need
- Light: everyday prompting, summaries, basic checks
- Moderate: small workflow design, comparing outputs, quality bars, simple prompt libraries
- Intensive: orchestration — combining tools/agents, monitoring accuracy/bias, documenting guardrails and decisions
A simple progression: Year 10 → Light habits; Year 11 → Moderate; Year 12 (tech-leaning) → some Intensive.
Why Volatility Won’t Settle Soon
Infrastructure pressure: When organisations spend billions on AI-ready systems, they seek returns by deploying automation broadly.
Compound effects: New model capabilities unlock further automation (language → code → robotics → ops), and the changes stack.
Regulatory lag: Institutions adapt more slowly than AI deployment, so disruption hits before buffers are in place.
Students don’t need predictions; they need navigation.
Reading the Signals: Examples from the Index
Cybersecurity Analyst — Medium, Mixed | AMP: Intensive
Rationale: AI assists in monitoring, and the threat surface keeps expanding.
Strategic response: Build core security and incident skills while learning to manage AI-assisted detection and reporting.
Technical Writer — Medium, Negative | AMP: Moderate
Rationale: First-draft documentation and style normalisation are highly automatable.
Strategic response: Move up the value chain — complex technical comms, audience analysis, safety/ethics reviews — using AI for speed, not substance.
Solopreneur (AI-Augmented Services) — High, Positive | AMP: Intensive
Rationale: Tools move fast; opportunity high, stability low.
Strategic response: Ideal for students comfortable with rapid iteration. Expect constant tool change; build repeatable service workflows and basic governance.
Rule-of-Three Navigation System
1) Two signals → clear action.
Volatility = timing (commit / hedge / pivot). AMP = skill focus (what AI capability to build next).
2) Term-based reviews: Revisit the table each term. Update a few rows. Keep pilots small enough to pivot without drama.
3) Adjacent options: For any High path, keep two lower-volatility adjacencies in the same category. Build transferable skills that work across those neighbours.
The Opportunity Hidden in Disruption
Volatility creates winners and losers. Students who read signals early, develop the right AI management habits, and keep optionality open tend to land better. Those who ignore signals or lock into high-volatility paths without a hedge take unnecessary risk.
The Volatility Index doesn’t try to predict the future. It keeps students oriented as the future shifts — and that navigation capacity matters more than any single destination.
With a simple early-warning system and a steady response pattern, career volatility can become a career opportunity.
Ready to pilot the Volatility Index with your students?
The GlidePath Career Navigation™ system — AI Volatility™ Index + AMP — is available for PoC pilots. No new systems required; file-based and assistant-agnostic.
Visit https://www.fusionbridge.org/contact-form to register your interest
References
- Eloundou, T., Manning, S., Mishkin, P., & Rock, D. (2024). GPTs are GPTs: Labor market impact potential of LLMs. Science, 384(6702), 1306–1308. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adj0998 — (Used for the task-level exposure point and the “~46% of jobs with meaningful exposure” framing.)
- International Energy Agency (2025). Energy and AI — World Energy Outlook Special Report. Paris: IEA. Energy and AI — (Used for the “AI has major consequences for the energy sector,” data-centre electricity growth, and grid/energy-system implications.)
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2025, Aug 26). Is AI Contributing to Unemployment? Evidence Across Occupations. On the Economy blog — (Used for the “AI Adoption vs. Unemployment change by occupation” chart that supports my volatility rationale.)
- Twemlow, G. (2025). Student-Led Career Navigation in the AI Era (Medium) — (My core narrative on student-led navigation, volatility, and AI Management Proficiency.)
Appendix — Prompt Templates (file-based, assistant-agnostic)
Update your data inside [ ].
Prompt #1 — Start my GlidePath Plan
I’m [First-name], Year [nn] at a [public / private / boys / girls / co-ed] school.
I’ve uploaded the latest GlidePath Career Navigation™ Volatility Index (with AI Volatility + AI Management Proficiency). Use ONLY this file for roles, categories, keywords, AI Volatility, AMP, and any macro tags. Do NOT guess or use outside sources or links.
(Optional) I’ve also uploaded my exam results for the last [12/24] months — please read and use them.
If my results are attached:
• Extract my Top-3 subjects (by recent performance and trend) and write one short “strengths” sentence in plain English. Then ask the questions below and STOP.
If results are not attached:
• Ask the questions below and STOP.
Ask exactly these questions (numbered), then wait for my answers:
- Subjects you enjoy most (2–3).
- Any recent result or project you’re proud of.
- Interests/hobbies outside class.
- What work style you imagine liking (people, data, hands-on, creative, outdoors — pick 1–2).
- Constraints I should factor in (location, budget, time, transport).
- Uni likelihood (1–5): 1–2 = vocational-leaning, 3 = mixed, 4–5 = uni-leaning.
- Scope check: explore by category and/or specific roles from the file.
- If roles are listed, name up to three from the file for a deep dive.
After I answer:
• Using ONLY the uploaded list + my answers/results, do one of:
— If I listed roles: for each role, write one short paragraph: day-to-day reality; helpful strengths/subjects; one tiny step this week (30–60 minutes); AI Volatility exactly as in the file (or “Not rated”); AMP.
— If I listed categories: suggest 2–3 roles per category (from the file), then pick one best-fit per category and write one paragraph as above.
High-volatility rule:
• If any chosen role is High in the file, say so clearly and suggest one adjacent lower-volatility role from the same category; ask if I want to pivot.
Out-of-file requests:
• If I name a role not in the file, say it’s out-of-scope for rating. Offer 1–2 closest in-file roles with real volatility/AMP and ask if I want to switch. If I insist, treat it as out-of-file and label: “This role is not in the uploaded list; AI volatility: Not rated.”
Finish by asking if I want to save this as “My GlidePath — Prompt #1 — [First-name]”.
Compliance (print this line): use only GlidePath Career Navigation™ Volatility Index; volatility/AMP match file; no external links or invented details.
Prompt #2 — Continue my GlidePath Plan
Update your data inside [ ].
I’m [First-name]. I’ve uploaded the latest GlidePath Career Navigation™ Volatility Index (with AI Volatility + AI Management Proficiency) again. Use ONLY this file for roles, volatility, AMP, and macro tags.
(Optional) I’ve uploaded updated exam results — please read and use them.
Choose one mode:
• Deepen one role: [Role]
• Compare two roles: [Role A] vs [Role B]
• Explore a category first: [Category]
• Filter for stability: show roles with AI Volatility = Low (rated rows only)
Updates since last time (optional):
I tried: [1–2 lines]
I learned: [1–2 lines]
Uni likelihood (1–5): [number]
Constraints/notes: [changes, if any]
What I want now:
• For each role you discuss, write one short paragraph: day-to-day reality; strengths/subjects that help (use my results if attached); one tiny step this week (30–60 minutes); AI Volatility exactly as in the file (or “Not rated”); AMP.
Rules:
• When I ask to filter for stability, include ONLY roles rated Low in the file (exclude unrated/Medium/High).
• If a role is High, state that clearly and offer one adjacent lower-volatility alternative from the same category (from the file).
• If I request a role not in the file, handle as in Prompt #1.
• Do NOT infer or insert personal details I didn’t provide.
End by asking me to pick one small step and offer to save as “My GlidePath — Prompt #2 — [First-name]”.
Compliance (print this line): use only the GlidePath Career Navigation™ Volatility Index list; volatility/AMP match file; no external links or invented details.
About the Author: Greg Twemlow — © 2025 | All rights reserved. I write at the collision points of technology, education, and human agency, including:
Learning as Self-Authorship — Becoming the author of your learning, life, and legacy.
Creativity as a Sovereign Practice — Expressing what only you can bring into the world.
Agency in an Age of Intelligent Systems — Making decisive, value-aligned choices.
Remixing the World — Transforming existing ideas into new forms that inspire thoughtful examination.
Living in Alignment — Staying in tune with your values, ethics, and the people who matter.
Frequently Asked Questions: GlidePath Career Navigation™ Volatility Index
Understanding the System
Q: How is the Volatility Index different from other career assessment tools? A: Most tools try to match personality to jobs or predict which careers will survive. The Volatility Index tracks how fast specific roles are changing and what AI skills they’ll require. Instead of “you should be an engineer,” you get “engineering roles are evolving at this speed, requiring this level of AI management — here’s how to navigate that change.”
Q: How accurate are your AI Volatility ratings? A: They’re evidence-based, not predictive. Each rating cites recent research and industry data, clearly stating what we know and what’s uncertain. When we mark something “Not Rated,” that means insufficient evidence exists — we don’t guess. The ratings help students make informed choices about timing and risk, not perfect predictions about outcomes.
Q: What does “task-level analysis” mean in practice? A: Instead of asking “will AI replace accountants,” we ask “which accounting tasks are automatable and which remain human?” A role might persist while daily responsibilities shift dramatically. This helps students understand what skills to develop and which tasks to prepare for change.
Q: Why do you think volatility will keep increasing rather than stabilize? A: Three forces: massive infrastructure investment demanding returns through automation deployment, compound effects where each AI advance unlocks further automation possibilities, and regulatory systems adapting slowly to technological change. Students need navigation tools for ongoing volatility, not temporary disruption.
The Emotional Impact
Q: Won’t this make students more anxious about their future careers? A: The opposite. Vague warnings about “AI changing everything” create anxiety. Specific information with strategic responses creates agency. When a student sees “Medium, Mixed” with clear next steps, they can act strategically instead of worrying abstractly. Structure reduces anxiety more than false reassurance.
Q: How do parents handle their own career advice becoming outdated? A: The Volatility Index gives families shared vocabulary for career conversations. Instead of parents feeling their experience is irrelevant, they can point to concrete data and ask strategic questions: “Given this volatility level, what’s a smart next step?” Their wisdom shifts from predicting careers to coaching navigation.
Q: What about students who just want a “safe” career path? A: The Index identifies roles with “Low, Positive” ratings suitable for longer commitments. But even “safe” careers require AI Management Proficiency development. Safety comes from building navigation skills, not avoiding change.
AI Management Proficiency (AMP)
Q: Do all students need to become “AI experts”? A: No. AMP levels are realistic about what each role requires. Light AMP (prompting, summaries) suits many paths. Moderate (workflow design, quality standards) covers most professional roles. Intensive (orchestration, governance) applies mainly to technical fields. It’s about appropriate skill levels, not universal expertise.
Q: How do students actually develop AMP skills? A: Start with Light habits in Year 10 — learn effective prompting and output evaluation. Build Moderate skills in Year 11 — compare AI outputs, set quality standards, maintain simple prompt libraries. Year 12 students targeting technical fields should attempt some Intensive elements — combining tools, monitoring accuracy, documenting decisions.
Q: What if a student’s chosen career path has “High, Negative” volatility? A: The system flags this immediately and suggests adjacent lower-volatility roles in the same category. High, Negative paths can serve as stepping stones if students extract transferable skills quickly, but shouldn’t be long-term destinations without specific strategic reasons.
Implementation
Q: How much time does this take for career advisers? A: Less time than traditional approaches. Students arrive with concrete experiences and AI-generated role summaries, not blank pages. Advisers focus on interpretation, timing, and trade-offs — their highest-value work — rather than basic information delivery.
Q: What technology requirements are needed? A: Any AI assistant that can read files and chat — ChatGPT, Claude, Copilot, even free versions. The system is file-based and assistant-agnostic. Schools upload one file and use copy-paste prompts. It works in NSW Education’s Microsoft environment as easily as anywhere.
Q: How often should the Volatility Index be updated? A: Role ratings are reviewed quarterly, with urgent updates for major industry shifts. Students should revisit their assessments each school term, updating their strategic approach as evidence changes. The methodology assumes ongoing change rather than set-and-forget planning.
Strategic Response
Q: What’s the “Rule-of-Three Navigation System”? A: Three simple principles: (1) Two signals drive action — Volatility determines timing strategy, AMP determines skill focus; (2) Term-based reviews keep strategy current; (3) Adjacent options provide safety nets — always identify two lower-volatility alternatives in the same category.
Q: How do families actually use this information for planning? A: Volatility levels translate into strategic approaches. Low, Positive = safe for major commitments. Medium, Mixed = build flexibility and hedge with adjacent skills. High, Negative = short-term only, actively plan transitions. The AMP level shows what AI skills to prioritise.
Q: What about careers that don’t exist yet? A: The system builds transferable navigation skills rather than predicting specific futures. Students learn to identify emerging opportunities, test new fields early through small pilots, and adapt quickly — capabilities that work regardless of which new roles emerge.
Getting Started
Q: Can families use this independently, or do they need professional guidance? A: Both. The system is designed for student autonomy within appropriate guardrails. Younger students (Years 7–8) need lighter guidance focused on exploration. Senior students (Years 11–12) can use it more independently for strategic planning. Career adviser input remains valuable for complex trade-offs.
Q: What’s the pilot program arrangement? A: Schools can test the complete system for 12 months at no cost. This includes the Volatility Index, prompts, and implementation support. For ongoing institutional use beyond the pilot, contact greg@fusionbridge.org for licensing arrangements.
Q: How do we measure success with this approach? A: Student engagement with career exploration increases, family conversations become more strategic and less anxious, and career adviser time shifts to higher-value guidance activities. Success isn’t perfect prediction — it’s better navigation capacity and reduced anxiety about change.
Q: What if our school already has career guidance systems in place? A: The Volatility Index complements existing programs rather than replacing them. It adds AI impact intelligence and strategic frameworks to current guidance approaches. The file-based, prompt-driven method integrates with any existing career counselling structure.
For additional questions or pilot program registration: greg@fusionbridge.org GlidePath™ Career Navigation System © 2025 Greg Twemlow
